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Comparative performance of bagging and boosting ensemble models for predicting lumpy skin disease with multiclass-imbalanced data
Faculty
Veterinary Medicine
Year:
2025
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
17
Authors:
Hagar Fathi Gouda
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
Scientific Reports Springer Nature
Volume:
15
Keywords :
Comparative performance , bagging , boosting ensemble models
Abstract:
Ensemble machine learning (ML) algorithms, such as bagging and boosting, are powerful decision-support tools that enhance disease prediction and risk management in the veterinary field. Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) poses a significant threat to livestock health and results in substantial economic losses. This study aims to predict LSD using 1,041 data records collected from six Egyptian governorates between June 2020 and October 2022. The dataset exhibits a multiclass imbalance with three outcome classes: Dead (6%), Diseased (32%), and Healthy (62%). To address this imbalance, we applied SMOTE, Random Oversampling (ROS), and Random Undersampling (RUS). Five ensemble models: Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting (GBoost), and XGBoost were evaluated on both imbalanced and balanced datasets, with hyperparameter tuning via grid search and 10-fold cross-validation. Our findings highlight the superior performance of the RF model combined with ROS (RF-ROS), achieving the highest accuracy (82%) and AUC (0.93), followed by balanced XGBoost (81.25%, AUC = 0.93). AdaBoost and GBoost also improved significantly after oversampling and tuning. SHAP analysis identified vaccination status as the most important predictor, emphasizing targeted interventions. These results demonstrate that combining resampling with hyperparameter tuning enhances ML performance on imbalanced veterinary data.
Author Related Publications
Hagar Fathi Gouda, "Egyptian Novel Goose Parvovirus in Immune Organs of Naturally Infected Ducks: Next-Generation Sequencing, Immunohistochemical Signals, and Comparative Analysis of Pathological Changes Using Multiple Correspondence and Hierarchical Clustering Approach", MDPI, 2025
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Hagar Fathi Gouda, "Comparison of machine learning models for bluetongue risk prediction: a seroprevalence study on small ruminants", Springer Nature, 2022
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Hagar Fathi Gouda, "Milk yield prediction in Friesian cows using linear and flexible discriminant analysis under assumptions violations", Springer Nature, 2024
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Hagar Fathi Gouda, "Impact of Missing Data Imputation Methods on Univariate Turkey Production Time Series Analysis and ARIMA-Based Forecasting", National Information and Documentation Center (NIDOC), Academy of Scientific Research and Technology (ASRT), 2026
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Hagar Fathi Gouda, "Novel goose parvovirus in naturally infected ducks suffering from locomotor disorders: molecular detection, histopathological examination, immunohistochemical signals, and full genome sequencing", Taylor & Francis, 2024
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Department Related Publications
Ashraf fathey said awaid, "Moringa oleifera ethanolic extract attenuates tilmicosin-induced renal damage in male rats via suppression of oxidative stress, inflammatory injury, and intermediate filament proteins mRNA expression", Elsevier, 2021
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Ayman Abdelattef Salleh, "Evidence for origin of lavender foal syndrome among Egyptian Arabian horses in Egypt", WILEY, 2022
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