Zagazig University Digital Repository
Home
Thesis & Publications
All Contents
Publications
Thesis
Graduation Projects
Research Area
Research Area Reports
Search by Research Area
Universities Thesis
ACADEMIC Links
ACADEMIC RESEARCH
Zagazig University Authors
Africa Research Statistics
Google Scholar
Research Gate
Researcher ID
CrossRef
Rainfall forecasting in arid regions in response to climate change using ARIMA and remote sensing
Faculty
Engineering
Year:
2024
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
Authors:
Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk Taylor & francis
Volume:
15
Keywords :
Rainfall forecasting , arid regions , response , climate
Abstract:
Climate changes in increasing at alarming rates which caused outward changes in the hydrological cycle parameters such as temperature and precipitation. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall has changed all over the world. Rainfall forecasting is considered an important tool that could help decisionmakers for managing water resources. Syria is facing several drought events that may affect its water resources. Due to the lack of available rainfall data from land stations in Syria after the civil war started in 2010 till now, one of the aims of this study is to depend on rainfall data from satellite images after correcting these data using the available land stations data. This study also aims to assess rainfall trends in Syria due to climate change and forecasting rainfall. The rainfall data were collected from 71 land stations from 1991 to 2009. Satellite images from Climate Data Record (CDR) were downloaded from 1983 to 2020 and ArcMap was used to extract rainfall data at locations of land stations. The extracted rainfall data from satellite images were corrected by land stations data from 1991 to 2009. Then Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are used to fit and forecasting rainfall in Syria. The rainfall trends at the studied stations were analyzed for 40 years (1983–2022) and a forecast of one year is conducted. The results showed decreasing trends at all the stations that lead to a decrease the quantity of water received every year which could affect the water resources in Syria and agriculture and food security will be also affected. The results are consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that concluded a decrease in rainfall at southern and eastern Mediterranean regions. The results of the current study could help in the management of water resources in Syria and forecasting using ARIMA is recommended for rainfall predictions.
Author Related Publications
Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia , "Investigating and Managing the Impact of Using Untreated Wastewater for Irrigation on the Groundwater Quality in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions", MPDI, 2021
More
Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia , "Environmental risk assessment focused on water quality in the Laborec River watershed", Elsevier, 2021
More
Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia , "Finite element modeling of seawater intrusion in Wadi Ham aquifer, UAE", Engineering Computations, 2012
More
Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia , "Update of IDF curves for Riyadh city, KSA", Egyptian International Journal of Engineering Science and Technology (EIJEST), Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University, 2013
More
Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia , "Investigation of Some Potential Parameters and its Impacts on Saltwater Intrusion in Nile Delta Aquifer", Journal of Engineering Sciences, Faculty of Engineering, Assiut University, 2014
More
Department Related Publications
Mohamed Abdelaziz Ibrahiem Azzaab, "رصد التغير العمراني باستخدام البيانات الرقمية للأقمار الصناعية ونظم المعلومات الجغرافية دراسة تطبيقية على مدينة الزقازيق – محافظة الشرقية", مجلة كلية الآداب-المنوفية, 2008
More
Mohamed Abdelaziz Ibrahiem Azzaab, "Change Detection of the North Sinai Coast Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System", مجلة كلية الآداب-المنوفية, 2007
More
Mohamed Abdelaziz Ibrahiem Azzaab, "Geo-Environmental changes of Burullus Lake and the Delta shore line-Egypt", مجلة كلية الآداب-المنصورة, 2006
More
Mohamed Abdelaziz Ibrahiem Azzaab, "Assessment And Monitoring Of Geoenvironmental HAZARDS In Toshka Area, Southern Egypt", مجلة المساحة الجيولوجية, 2012
More
Ayman Abdelhamied Abdelkhalek , "5- البطالة فى المدن المصرية الجديدة فى الفترة (1986- 2006 م)- مدن الجيل الأول نموذجاً", مجلة كلية الآداب، جامعة المنصورة, 2014
More
جامعة المنصورة
جامعة الاسكندرية
جامعة القاهرة
جامعة سوهاج
جامعة الفيوم
جامعة بنها
جامعة دمياط
جامعة بورسعيد
جامعة حلوان
جامعة السويس
شراقوة
جامعة المنيا
جامعة دمنهور
جامعة المنوفية
جامعة أسوان
جامعة جنوب الوادى
جامعة قناة السويس
جامعة عين شمس
جامعة أسيوط
جامعة كفر الشيخ
جامعة السادات
جامعة طنطا
جامعة بنى سويف