The transportation sector in Egypt consumes 22% of the total hydrocarbon consumed in the country. As the power generation sector is shifting towards renewable energy, the transport sector electrification will represent an effective tool to reduce greenhouse gases. A detailed stochastic model has been developed to calculate the total cost of ownership, TCO, for both electric vehicles and conventional gasoline vehicles using a bottom-up stochastic approach. The model is used to predict the evolution of EVs in the Egyptian market up to 2040, and to assess the environmental and economic consequences of the conversion to EVs. Also, the model considers the statistical distribution of the new cars among the various car classes. A database for the equivalent sizes of EVs and their prices has been developed. Base and proactive scenarios have been evaluated to predict the required energy policies to facilitate the transition to electric mobility in both scenarios. Based on the model, the share of both electric private cars and Taxis will reach 26.7% and 48.1%, respectively, of the total number of vehicles by 2040. Gasoline saving up to 2.85 Mton is achieved with 10.81 Mton reduction in CO2 emissions up to 2040. Regarding the EVs electricity demand for the proactive scenario, it is 12.9 TWh by 2040. This demand represents a share of 2.2% to 3.65% of the electricity generated by 2040 depending on the base and proactive scenarios, respectively. However, it may be a challenge on the electricity distribution level. This request enhancing the distribution infrastructure and incorporates Smart Charging & Optimizations techniques.