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Quantifying Climate Risks: SVAR Analysis on Inflation and Economic Growth in Egypt
Faculty
Commerce
Year:
2023
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
683-714
Authors:
Ramy Hosny Mahfouz Elazhary
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
المجلة المصرية للدراسات التجارية كلية التجارة - جامعة المنصورة
Volume:
47
Keywords :
Quantifying Climate Risks: SVAR Analysis , Inflation
Abstract:
Climate change poses a critical challenge in our era. In this study, we use quantitative methodology to examine the effect of natural disasters on inflation and GDP growth caused by weather. Using time series data for Egypt spanning the period 1965-2021. Based on Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), the analysis reveals that inflation and growth respond very modestly to weather-related natural disasters but differ regarding the direction and magnitude of climate shocks. Temperature shocks, storms, and floods lead to a decrease in inflation rates, while earthquakes increase inflation rates. While flood shocks appear to lead to a permanent increase in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the effects of temperature, storms, and earthquakes are more volatile and less persistent in the long run. In the case of temperature shocks, the growth slowdown extends beyond seven years from the shock. At this point, real GDP growth is lower by approximately 3.8 percentage points than if the temperature shock had not occurred.
Author Related Publications
Ramy Hosny Mahfouz Elazhary, "Finance-growth nexus: financial deepening for economic growth: evidence from Egypt", Faculty of Commerce, Benha University. Egypt, 2017
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Ramy Hosny Mahfouz Elazhary, "The Role of Inclusive Growth in Egyptian Economy", Mansoura University and Delta University of Science and Technology, 2012
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Ramy Hosny Mahfouz Elazhary, "Stock Market Influence on Domestic Savings in Egypt: Structural Modelling Dynamics", كلية التجارة - جامعة الزقازيق, 2024
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Ramy Hosny Mahfouz Elazhary, "تحديد حجم الاستثمار في رأس المال البشري اللازم لاستيعاب الثورة الصناعية الرابعة Determining the Level of Investment in Human Capital Required to Embrace the Fourth Industrial Revolution", 2024
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Ramy Hosny Mahfouz Elazhary, "Government Spending and Regional Poverty Alleviation: Evidence from Egypt", Springer Nature, 2024
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Department Related Publications
Mahmoud Ibrahiem Aboelewn, "التشابك المالي والنقدي وفعالية السياسة الاقتصادية في مصر", الجمعية المصرية للاقتصاد السياسي والإحصاء والتشريع, 1989
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Mahmoud Ibrahiem Aboelewn, "توجهات الادارة الاقتصادية لمصر المستقبل", كلية التجارة جامعة الزقازيق, 2014
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Iyad Mohammed Attia Attia, "Energy consumption and economic growth in Egypt: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach", جامعة بنها, 2011
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Iyad Mohammed Attia Attia, "The effect of Real Exchange rate on Unemployment: Evidence from Egypt", Arab Journal of Administration, 2018
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Nahla Fathy Mohamed Amien Salem, "تأثير الصحة على النمو الاقتصادي في مصر خلال الفترة من 1969 – 201", مجلة العلمية ( التجارة والتمويل ) جامعة طنطا, 2019
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جامعة المنصورة
جامعة الاسكندرية
جامعة القاهرة
جامعة سوهاج
جامعة الفيوم
جامعة بنها
جامعة دمياط
جامعة بورسعيد
جامعة حلوان
جامعة السويس
شراقوة
جامعة المنيا
جامعة دمنهور
جامعة المنوفية
جامعة أسوان
جامعة جنوب الوادى
جامعة قناة السويس
جامعة عين شمس
جامعة أسيوط
جامعة كفر الشيخ
جامعة السادات
جامعة طنطا
جامعة بنى سويف