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How much nitrogen does Africa need to feed itself by 2050?
Faculty
Agriculture
Year:
2020
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
Authors:
Mohammed Ahmed Said Mettwally
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
Journal of Environmental Management ELSEVIER
Volume:
Keywords :
, much nitrogen does Africa need , feed
Abstract:
Nitrogen (N) fertilizers are very important for global food self-suffciency (FSS), particularly for Africa, where the N input in agriculture is very low. This is the frst work which studies and calculates the amount of N fertilizer that each country in Africa needs to feed itself by 2050. In this study, we used fve different scenarios of inorganic fertilizer N (IFN) use and human diets to calculate the amount of N fertilizer needed to achieve FSS in Africa by 2050 and analyze the changes in N budget; N losses and N use effciency (NUE). These scenarios include 1) business as usual (BAU), 2) equitable diet (EqD; self-suffciency), 3) an IFN input 20% less than the EqD (S1), 4) an IFN input 40% less than the EqD (S2), and 5) a 20% increase in IFN input relative to the EqD (S3). Under the BAU scenario, production trends continue as they have over the past fve decades, including an unhealthy human diet. In the EqD scenario, the priority is to meet the local demand for both animal and plant proteins with a healthy human diet. Under the EqD scenario, increasing the total N input from 35 kg N ha 1 yr 1 to 181 kg N ha 1 yr 1 during 2016–2050 is needed to achieve FSS in Africa. This increase in N fertilizer use represents unprecedented N inputs to African terrestrial ecosystems — at least 52 Tg N yr 1 — which would lead to inevitable increases in N losses. We also found that the NUE would decrease from 63% during 2010–2016 to 50% by 2050, whereas the total N surplus would increase from 13 kg N ha 1 yr 1 to 90 kg N ha 1 yr 1 by 2050. The estimated gaseous emissions would increase from 8 kg N ha 1 yr 1 to 61 kg N ha 1 yr 1 by 2050. Our fndings conclude that, it is very important to consider the high N losses in Africa if the EqD scenario is applied. The S1 and S2 scenarios result in much less environmental N loss, and better NUE compared with the EqD scenario. Therefore, based on these fndings we can recommend the implementation of the S2 scenario with an IFN dose of 77 kg N ha 1 yr 1, in parallel with the use of modern agricultural techniques and the increased use of organic inputs
Author Related Publications
Mohammed Ahmed Said Mettwally, "Global gross nitrification rates are dominantly driven by soil carbon-to-nitrogen stoichiometry and total nitrogen", Wiley, 2021
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Mohammed Ahmed Said Mettwally, "Evaluation fertility of some soils using chemical and thermodynamic method", مجلة الزقازيق للبحوث الزراعية, 2016
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Mohammed Ahmed Said Mettwally, "Soil Properties Spatial Variability and Delineation of Site-Specific Management Zones Based on Soil Fertility Using Fuzzy Clustering in a Hilly Field in Jianyang, Sichuan, China", MDPI, 2019
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Mohammed Ahmed Said Mettwally, "Interplay of silymarin and clove fruit extract effectively enhances cadmium stress tolerance in wheat (Triticum aestivum)", FRONTIERS MEDIA SA, 2023
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Department Related Publications
Ayman Mahmoud Helmy Mohamed Abozied, "YIELD QUALITY AND CHEMICAL COMPOSITIONS OF PEANUT AS AFFECTED BY POTASSIUM AND GYPSUM APPLICATIONS UNDER FOLIAR SPRAYING WITH BORON", Egypt. J. Agric. Sci. Vol. (53), 2013
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Ayman Mahmoud Helmy Mohamed Abozied, "NITROGEN EFFECIENCY IN BARELY UNDER SALINE-SODIC CONDITIONDS AS AFFECTED BY UREA, COMPOST AND BIOFERTILIZER (Rhizobium radiobacter sp.)", J.Soil Sci. and Agric. Eng., Mansoura Univ.,, 2013
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Ayman Mahmoud Helmy Mohamed Abozied, "Rhizobium BIOFERTILIZATION WITH OR WITHOUT MINERAL-N FERTILIZATION FOR A NEW COWPEA CULTIVAR (KAFR EL-SHEIKH1) GROWN UNDER SALINE CONDITIONS", Zagazig Journal of Agricultural Research, 2013
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Mohammed Saied Dosoki Abohashim, "Impact of Gypsum Particle Size on Soil Physical Properties of a Saline-Sodic Soil from North Sinai, Egypt.", Egypt. J. Soil Sci. 53(1) 89-103., 2013
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Mohammed Saied Dosoki Abohashim, "Land Evaluation Based on GIS-Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) for Agricultural Development in Dry Wadi, Eastern Desert, Egypt", International Journal of Soil Science, 2015
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